Even if we thought it was acceptable to risk millions of deaths by ending physical distancing, it’s not clear the economy would rebound
hould we reopen the US economy in a couple of weeks? Both sides of the argument have their merits. We need to put US workers back to work as quickly as possible to slow the economic damage inflicted by mass physical distancing policies. We also must minimize US deaths from the coronavirus outbreak. Barring a miracle cure, experts markedly disagree about how best to strike the balance.
But even if it were deemed optimal, can America realistically reopen our economy right now?
Economic hurdles
We’re possibly facing a 1918-style pandemic if we relax physical distancing and a Great Depression-level economic shock if we don’t. Yet our economy today is dramatically different from that of the early 20th century.
American goods and services are reliant on the output of other countries around the world, whose production is in turn dependent on the output of still other nations, and so on. We can’t successfully put American companies back to work unless other countries simultaneously do the same with their domestic industries.
Production of US automobiles, for example, simply won’t be feasible until nations that produce required components also reopen. And if US automakers can’t source the materials they need for domestic production, related service companies – like marketing firms – won’t have much work, either. If marketing companies have little to market, online advertising giants such as Google and Facebook will in turn see limited revenues.
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